Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 79715.551385 84163.561582 88609.435544 93383.385992 98361.262075 103395.464412 108868.157540
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 71848.406619 78618.159405 85574.304386 93246.054466 101459.356585 109978.443318 119472.319898
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 67188.189393 75608.834535 84449.687319 94402.739975 105274.488295 116767.756603 129815.037620
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 62586.554091 72139.183135 82353.935474 94054.859099 107051.844100 121010.010967 137097.577908
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 60019.094360 70615.668540 82125.199550 95504.162852 110575.684343 126975.721228 146116.414792
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57511.675416 68944.582477 81539.954206 96376.099218 113301.103836 131934.397747 153924.319908
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 54837.313063 66906.146546 80379.986277 96447.481214 114992.094576 135628.942346 160231.885243
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52328.102917 64914.715150 79143.403725 96307.522944 116333.668237 138841.655784 165927.247381
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51186.414579 64443.178292 79596.326665 98061.938089 119812.145643 144470.515758 174385.527988
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50134.583570 64007.995505 80032.694403 99747.323691 123175.827806 149951.951619 182681.483396
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48673.409838 63007.391028 79735.550369 100508.810873 125410.283028 154093.823781 189411.265455
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 46811.815469 61442.588006 78693.772322 100316.475128 126459.540086 156806.871651 194441.282221
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45311.612206 60293.466324 78138.799382 100711.048414 128231.893674 160419.723223 200614.535570
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 43694.150601 58943.118084 77291.429816 100710.912531 129502.337320 163426.498462 206079.028190
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 42807.533067 58471.647803 77493.495680 101972.101559 132290.891061 168252.723008 213743.237881
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 41192.791972 57016.896638 76421.184761 101608.526700 133050.774753 170605.545900 218414.022933
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 40573.968219 56811.494707 76891.725734 103151.614657 136154.723887 175809.673554 226566.849906
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 39711.408681 56255.855901 76890.849360 104079.307642 138481.157488 180063.712723 233576.944086
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 38513.961201 55221.069899 76242.958202 104155.287455 139718.181422 182966.107698 238929.728888
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37280.107257 54098.058377 75445.228660 104006.447173 140645.313491 185468.837032 243785.344000
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36974.035630 54197.398997 76219.701521 105872.177180 144127.329879 191160.586866 252625.743754
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 36655.376812 54263.967614 76940.609830 107664.115065 147520.293621 196757.943118 261382.450746
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 35948.682715 53779.881509 76918.267057 108473.624038 149647.667817 200770.962232 268175.106642